Advanced packaging Opportunities > Challenges

As the chip process continues to move towards 7nm, 5nm and even finer 3nm, foundries are actively applying advanced packaging technologies to further improve product performance, optimize cost structures and accelerate time to market. Advanced packaging technology leads the iterative upgrading of packaging technology, and the market share is gradually rising, which is expected to gradually surpass traditional packaging technology and become a new wind for the development of the industry. What will advanced packaging look like in 2024?

HPC and AI bring new development opportunities

Advanced packaging and traditional packaging technologies are distinguished by whether or not to weld wire. Advanced packaging includes non-welded wire forms such as FlipChip, Bumping, Wafer level package, 2.5D package and 3D package. The functions of the traditional package mainly lie in the three functions of chip protection, scale amplification and electrical connection, and the advanced package adds three new functions on this basis to improve the functional density, shorten the interconnection length and carry out system reconstruction.

Driven by HPC (High performance Computing) and AI technology, advanced packaging technology has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. With the continuous progress of AI technology, many application scenarios and chips have put forward more stringent requirements for features such as high computing power, high bandwidth, low latency, low power consumption, larger memory and system integration. In this context, advanced packaging technology plays a crucial role.

According to the data, in 2023, the total capacity of HBM (high bandwidth memory) carried by the major AI-accelerated chips on the market will reach 290 million GB, with a growth rate of nearly 60%. The growth rate will exceed 30% in 2024. At the same time, as the demand for high-end AI chips increases, advanced packaging capacity is expected to grow by 30 to 40 percent in 2024. According to YOLE data, the global advanced packaging market is expected to continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% between 2022 and 2028. The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $42.9 billion in 2022 to $78.6 billion in 2028.

In terms of different packaging technologies, FCBGA, FCCSP and 2.5D/3D packaging technologies will become the mainstream of the market in 2024. 2.5D/3D packaging technology is growing fast, and YOLE expects its market size to jump from $9.4 billion in 2022 to $22.5 billion in 2028, a compound annual growth rate of 15.6%.

Chiplet and 3D packaging are getting a lot of attention

With the rapid development of high performance computing, Chiplet (small chip), one of the advanced packaging technologies, has attracted much attention in the industry.

Xu Dongmei, deputy secretary general and secretary general of the closed Test Branch of China Semiconductor Industry Association, pointed out that because the AI and HPC fields need to deal with large-scale data and complex calculations, the scale of chip design is extremely high, so the demand for Chiplet technology in these two fields is more urgent. With the continuous development of AI applications, the demand for the chip behind it is also increasing, showing the huge potential and growth of the Chiplet market. According to the data, the global market size of Chiplet chips will reach $5.8 billion by 2024 and $57 billion by 2035.

At the same time, with the continuous improvement of computing power demand, 3D packaging technology will also usher in a "qualifying race" in 2024. It is reported that 3D packaging technology will stack multiple chips or devices vertically, which significantly improves the integration, reduces the length of the interconnection, and further improves the overall performance. The global market for advanced chip packaging is expected to grow from $44.3 billion in 2022 to $66 billion in 2027, with 3D packaging expected to account for about a quarter.

In 2024, companies such as TSMC, Intel and Samsung Electronics have increased investment to promote the research and development and application of 3D packaging technology. TSMC's SoIC technology, as a high-density 3D Chiplet stacking technology in the industry, has been commercialized and widely recognized in the market. It is understood that TSMC will expand the monthly production capacity of SoIC technology from the previous 1,900 pieces to more than 3,000 pieces per month in 2024, an increase of nearly 60%.

In addition to TSMC, Intel and Samsung Electronics' 3D packaging technology will also achieve mass production in 2024. In January 2024, Intel announced that its 3D packaging technology, Foveros, had reached mass production. Meanwhile, Samsung is also actively developing its 3D packaging technology, the X-Cube, which it says will be mass-produced by 2024. SAINT, its 3D packaging technology developed for AI chips, is also getting closer, and there is news that SAINT will also be mass-produced in 2024.

Chinese semiconductor companies accelerate the layout

In 2024, Chinese semiconductor companies are also increasing their layout in the field of advanced packaging. Liu Geng, secretary of the board of directors of Xiamen Yuntian Semiconductor Technology Co., LTD., told China Electronics News that in addition to the layout of traditional packaging, domestic packaging companies are also laying out wafer-level packaging, including fan-out wafer-level packaging, and flip chip packaging.

Zheng Li, CEO of Changdian Technology, said that with the continuous popularization of the concept of green sustainable development, wide band gap semiconductors have also shown huge market growth potential. To ensure the stable and reliable performance of wide band gap semiconductor devices, advanced packaging technology is indispensable. Taking 5G radio frequency technology as an example, in order to achieve the high bandwidth, high speed and low delay characteristics of 5G, the industry has widely used wide band gap semiconductor devices such as gallium nitride, silicon carbide, and silicon-based gallium nitride in 5G radio frequency technology. This also means that more advanced packaging technologies are needed to integrate wide-gap semiconductor components with different physical characteristics, and to achieve high-speed, low-delay signal transmission to play out the energy efficiency of wide-gap semiconductors. "Although the technical difficulty is very high, it is also a key part of improving the transmission efficiency of 5G and future 6G, Wi-Fi 6, Wi-Fi 7 and other signals." "Zheng said.

Tongfu Micro Power is also making frequent efforts in the field of advanced packaging. It is reported that Tongfu Micro has built VISionS advanced packaging platform that integrates 2.5D, 3D, MCM-Chiplet and other advanced packaging technologies and ultra-large size FCBGA research and development platform. We have cooperated with international companies such as AMD and ST in the field of advanced packaging.

Yuntian Semiconductor is developing glass-based products. Liu Geng said that while ensuring the stable mass production of WLP (wafer-level packaging) and increasing production capacity, Yantian Semiconductor's future focus will be on new glass-based products, 2D/3D glass based IPD (passive device integration) for high-frequency filtering has begun mass production, and can also be used for matching chips such as power amplifiers and power devices. At the same time, glass base fan out, glass base transfer plate and other products have gradually entered the production stage.

Compared with the international advanced level, China still has a certain gap in the field of advanced packaging. According to the data, the proportion of advanced packaging in the global packaging market in 2023 is 49%, and China is 39%, which is lower than the global level.

Xu Dongmei believes that at present, China's packaging field is still mainly based on traditional low-end packaging, and there is still a certain gap between the level of advanced packaging technology and the international advanced level. In terms of unit technology, high-density wiring, chip flip, wafer level plastic sealing, etc., China has not yet formed a complete technical system, and the whole process development has not yet been completed. In addition, the key equipment and material supporting required for advanced packaging has not yet been perfected, and the supply chain capacity needs to be improved. In order to make up for these shortcomings, China needs to strengthen the research and development and innovation of advanced packaging technology, and enhance technology and supply chain capabilities. This includes increasing investment in research and development of advanced packaging technology, strengthening cooperation and exchanges with international advanced enterprises, introducing and cultivating high-end talents, and promoting the deep integration of industry, university and research. At the same time, policy support and capital investment should also be strengthened to provide a strong guarantee for the development of advanced packaging technology.